Market Volatility

Four keys to riding the market's ups and downs Let time work in your favor. Let the market worry about itself. Financial markets are unpredictable. No matter how much research you do and how closely you follow the news, trying to “time the market” usually means withdrawing too early and investing too late. In this guide, we’ll explain: Why a long-term strategy is often the best approach The problems with trying to time the market How to accurately evaluate portfolio performance How to make adjustments when you need to Why a long-term strategy is often the best approach Watch the market closely, and you’ll see it constantly fluctuate. The markets can be sky high one day, then come crashing down the next. Zoom in close enough on any ten-year period, and you’ll see countless short-term gains and losses that can be large in magnitude. Zoom out far enough, and you’ll see a gradual upward trend. It’s easy to get sucked into market speculation. Those short-term wins feel good, and look highly appealing. But you’re not trying to win the lottery here—you’re investing. You’re trying to reach financial goals. At Betterment, we believe the smartest way to do that is by diversifying your portfolio, making regular deposits, and holding your assets for longer. Accurately predicting where the market is going in the short-term is extremely difficult, but investing regularly over the long-term is an activity you can control that can lead to far more reliable performance over time. The power of compounding is real. By regularly investing in a well-diversified portfolio, you’re probably not going to suddenly win big. But you’re unlikely to lose it all, either. And by the time you’re ready to start withdrawing funds, you’ll have a lot more to work with. The basics of diversification Diversification is all about reducing risk. Every financial asset, industry, and market is influenced by different factors that change its performance. Invest too heavily in one area, and your portfolio becomes more vulnerable to its specific risks. Put all your money in an oil company, and a single oil spill, regulation, lawsuit, or change in demand could devastate your portfolio. There’s no failsafe. The less you lean on any one asset, economic sector, or geographical region, the more stable your portfolio will likely be. Diversification sets your portfolio up for long-term success with steadier, more stable performance. The problems with trying to time the market There are two big reasons not to try and time the market: It’s difficult to consistently beat a well-diversified portfolio Taxes Many investors miss more in gains than they avoid in losses by trying to time a dip. Even the best active investors frequently make “the wrong call.” They withdraw too early or go all-in too late. There are too many factors outside of your control. Too much information you don’t have. To beat a well-diversified portfolio, you have to buy and sell at the perfect time. Again. And again. And again. No matter how much market research you do, you’re simply unlikely to win that battle in the long run. Especially when you consider short-term capital gains taxes. Any time you sell an asset you’ve held for less than a year and make a profit, you have to pay short-term capital gains taxes. Just like that, you might have to shave up to 37% off of your profits. With a passive approach that focuses on the long game, you hold onto assets for much longer, so you’re far less likely to have short-term capital gains (and the taxes that come with them). Considering the short-term tax implications, you don’t just have to consistently beat a well-diversified, buy-and-hold portfolio. In order to outperform it by timing the market, you have to blow it out of the water. And that’s why you may want to rethink the way you evaluate portfolio performance. How to evaluate portfolio performance Want to know how well your portfolio is doing? You need to use the right benchmarks and consider after-tax adjustments. US investors often compare their portfolio performance to the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But that’s helpful if you’re only invested in the US stock market. If you’re holding a well-diversified portfolio holding stocks and bonds across geographical regions, a blended benchmark that consists of global stocks such as MSCI ACWI Index and global bonds using Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index may be a better comparison. Just make sure you compare apples to apples. If you have a portfolio that’s 80% stocks, don’t compare it to a portfolio with 100% stocks. The other key to evaluating your performance is tax adjustments. How much actually goes in your pocket? If you’re going to lose 30% or more of your profits to short-term capital gains taxes, that’s a large drain on your overall return that may impact how soon you can achieve your financial goals. How to adjust your investments during highs and lows At Betterment, we believe investors get better results when they don’t react to market changes. On a long enough timeline, market highs and lows won’t matter as much. But sometimes, you really do need to make adjustments. The best way to change your portfolio? Start small. Huge, sweeping changes are much more likely to hurt your performance. If stock investments feel too risky, you can even start putting your deposits into US Short-Term Treasuries instead, which are extremely low risk, highly liquid, and mature in about six months. This is called a “dry powder” fund. Make sure your adjustments fit your goal. If your goal is still years or decades away, your investments should probably be weighted more heavily toward diversified stocks. As you get closer to the end date, you can shift to bonds and other low-risk assets. Since it’s extremely hard to time the market, we believe it’s best to ride out the market highs and lows. We also make it easy to adjust your portfolio to fit your level of risk tolerance. It’s like turning a dial up or down, shifting your investments more toward stocks or bonds. You’re in control. And if “don’t worry” doesn’t put you at ease, you can make sure your risk reflects your comfort level.

An investor's guide to market volatility Knowing what to do during a market downturn can be especially difficult in the moment. Here’s how to plan ahead. In 1 minute When the prices in financial markets change, that’s market volatility. More volatility means greater potential for both gains or losses. In investing, market volatility comes with the territory. Some days the market is up, and other days it’s down. It’s OK to be anxious during a dip, but preparing for market volatility can help you avoid making decisions out of fear. Two of the biggest ways you can prepare for volatility: Diversify your portfolio Build an emergency fund Diversification helps protect your portfolio by spreading out your risk. A diversified portfolio may not gain as much as some individual assets, but it likely won’t lose as much as others. An emergency fund is a financial safety net. If market volatility negatively impacts your investments, your emergency fund can help cover your expenses until the economy recovers. During a downturn, we recommend resisting the urge to change your investments. Give your portfolio time to recover. But if you can’t do that, try to keep changes small, like lowering your stock allocation so that it’s more consistent with a more conservative risk tolerance level. In general, you should invest for the long-term, but at the same time you’ll likely want a diversified portfolio that you’re comfortable holding on to even when things in the market get bad. This can increase the odds you remain in the market when it ultimately recovers and continues on its path of expected long-term growth. Still not satisfying the itch to act? High management fees or capital gains distributions (from a mutual fund) could make that market volatility more uncomfortable. Or perhaps your financial advisor isn’t sticking to your target allocation as your portfolio experiences gains and losses. In these situations, a lower-fee robo-advisor like Betterment can help alleviate that discomfort. In 5 minutes In this guide, we’ll cover: What market volatility is How to prepare for it What to do about it Nobody likes to see their finances take a nosedive. But in a volatile market, dips happen often. Market volatility refers to fluctuations in the price of investments. Some markets—like the stock market—fluctuate more than others. And in times of economic stress, markets tend to be even more volatile, so you might see some big ups and downs. It’s tempting to sell everything and bail out during dips, but that often does more harm than good. Selling your assets could lock-in losses before they have a chance to rebound from the dip, and it’s nearly impossible to predict the market’s high points and low points. Reacting to market drawdowns by moving to cash is like selling your clothes because you gained a few pounds. Sure, they may feel a little snug, but you could find yourself with a bare closet if and when your weight fluctuates the other way. Historically, the stock market has had plenty of bad days. In any given decade, you’re bound to see many drawdowns, where investment values dip frightfully low. But when you step back and look at the big picture, the market has trended upward over time. So far, the global stock market, and by extension the U.S. stock market, has always recovered from economic downturns. And while nothing in life is guaranteed, those are some pretty good odds. History shows us that experiencing short-term losses is part of the path to long-term gains. The key for investors is to expect market volatility. It’s inevitable. And that means you need to prepare for it—not simply react to it. How to prepare for market volatility Market volatility can occur at any time. So you want to be ready for it now and in the future. The main thing you can do to prepare is diversify your portfolio. Having a balance of different assets decreases your overall level of risk. While some of your assets momentarily struggle, for example, others may hold steady or even thrive. The goal is your portfolio will hopefully feel less like a rollercoaster and more like a fun hike up wealth mountain. Beyond that, you’ll want to strongly consider building an emergency fund. A good starting point is having enough to cover three to six months of expenses. This is money you want on hand if market volatility takes a turn for the worse. Even if you don’t depend on your investments for income, major economic downturns can affect your life in other ways. The poor economy could lead to layoffs, bankruptcies, and other situations that impact your job stability. Or if you have rental properties, the real estate market could be adversely affected as well. All the more reason to have an emergency fund and ride out that turbulence if the need arises. What investors should do during downturns Caught in a downturn? Don’t panic. Seriously, when the market looks grim, the best reaction is usually to do nothing. Selling off your portfolio to prevent further losses is a common investor mistake that does two things: It locks-in those losses It takes away your chance to rebound with the market Scratching an itch usually won’t prevent it from recurring. The same goes for reacting to short-term losses in your portfolio. As much as you can, you want to resist the urge to react. Still, sometimes you may feel like you have to make a change. If that’s you, the first thing to do is make sure you’re comfortable with the level of risk you’re taking. Some asset classes, like stocks, are more volatile than others. The more weighted your portfolio is toward these assets, the more vulnerable it is to changes in the market. You’ll also want to confirm that your time horizon (when you need the money) is still correct. Think of this like checking your pulse, or taking a few deep breaths. You’re making sure your investments look right—that everything is working like it’s supposed to. If you’re still feeling tempted to do something drastic like withdraw all your investments, you probably should reduce your level of risk. Even if everything looks right for your goals, making a small adjustment now could prevent you from making a bigger mistake out of panic later. Your pulse is too high. Your breaths are too rapid. Sitting at 90% stocks and 10% bonds? You might try dialing it down to 75% stocks and 25% bonds. The time may be ripe to consider a Roth conversion Our investing advice of doing nothing and staying the course is generally the direction we try to nudge you toward when markets are down. While drops in global markets can be stressful, they also provide opportunities that can be beneficial for future you. One of those strategies is implementing a Roth conversion. A Roth conversion allows you to transfer, or convert, funds from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. You will typically owe income taxes on the amount you convert in the year of conversion, but the tradeoff is that once inside the Roth IRA future growth and withdrawals are generally tax-free. You can take a look at other pros and cons of Roth conversions in our Help Center. Here are a couple of reasons why you may want to consider converting your IRA when the market is down: The balance of your Traditional IRA has dropped significantly. When the balance of your Traditional IRA drops, you’re able to convert the same number of shares at lower market prices. This means you may pay less in taxes than if you converted those same number of shares at higher market prices. Growth from a global market recovery can be better in a Roth IRA than a Traditional IRA. As global markets recover over time, the value of your converted holdings may increase. This increase in value will now take place in your Roth IRA. Down the line, when you start taking withdrawals out of your Roth IRA in retirement, you’ll be able to do so without incurring any taxes. To understand how a Roth conversion may impact your personal financial situation, we strongly recommend consulting a tax advisor and IRS Publication 590. Betterment is not a licensed tax advisor and cannot provide tax advice. Reassess where you invest Depending on your situation, another option might be to shift your investments to a financial institution like Betterment. This could save you money in other ways, which might make your current risk level feel more comfortable. Some signs this might be the right move for you: 1. Your accounts have higher management fees You can’t control how the market performs, but you don’t have to be stuck with higher fees. Switching to a lower-fee institution like Betterment could lead to less of a drag on your long-term returns. 2. Your allocation is incorrect The sooner you need to use your money, the less risk you should take. Not sure what level of risk is right for you? When you set up a financial goal with Betterment, we’ll recommend a risk level based on your time horizon and target amount. 3. You own mutual funds that pay capital gains distributions When a mutual fund manager sells underlying investments in the fund, they may make a profit (capital gains), which are then passed on to individual shareholders like you. These distributions are taxable. Even worse: mutual funds can pay out capital gain distributions even if the fund’s overall performance is down for a year. So in a volatile market, your portfolio could lose value and you may still pay taxes on gains within the fund. In contrast, most exchange traded funds (ETFs) are more tax efficient.

Two timeless tips from a legendary investor Warren Buffett may be the greatest investor to ever live. But his mentor is a legend with some timeless advice for all of us. Warren Buffett’s mentor was Benjamin Graham. He wrote two of the most famous investing books ever written, with his most well-known book being The Intelligent Investor. The book was published in 1949 and his advice is still relevant today. If you don’t want to read Graham’s hundreds of pages of investment advice, don’t worry, we’ve summarized a couple of our favorite tips for you. Tip 1: Know what type of investor you are. Graham warned of, “...speculating when you think you are investing…” Graham divided investors into two camps: Defensive and aggressive investors. Both need to be cautious of becoming speculators, throwing money into the “hot” stocks of the moment. Defensive, or passive, investors want to avoid serious losses and the need to make frequent investing decisions. Aggressive, or active, investors have a willingness to devote time and care, and hopefully skill, to the selection of individual investments. Most people lean towards passive investing, but either way, avoid the temptation to speculate, especially unplanned speculation during market crazes (ahem, meme stocks). Tip 2: Be comfortable with market volatility. Graham writes, “Every investor who owns common stock must expect to see them fluctuate in value over the years.” When thinking about stock market volatility—the ups and downs of the market—consider this summary of Graham’s advice: Avoid timing the market. Graham was a big believer that it was nearly impossible for the general public to be successful at timing the market. We couldn’t agree more. You don’t need to watch your portfolio’s performance “like a hawk” as Graham wrote. Simply check it from time to time throughout the year to make sure your strategy aligns with your long-term investing goals. Bonus tips: For passive investors weathering a volatile market, Graham recommends (so do we!) the following investing approaches: Invest in low-cost funds: Look for well-diversified portfolios pre-built by experts to save you time. Use dollar-cost averaging: Consider depositing the same amount of money at fixed intervals (weekly, monthly, etc) over a period of time.